卦Trigram 2.0
Asian Snowcrash

The delivery date for the Meizu M8 has constantly been slipping. Amongst the faithful waiting for the phone to reach market, doubt has been setting in - will the M8 ever actually enter production, or will it become a might-have-been?

For me, it’s already too late. I need to buy a new phone soon and, once I have, I won’t need the M8. Pity, I was looking forward to using a really innovative, China-designed phone.

Anyway, for those who can still afford to wait, Engadget have released these clips of Meizu’s semi-functioning prototype:

 Update:

According to Phone magazine, the people at the Meizu stall are saying that the M8’s launch is 6 months away. Hmmm. I think that’s a killer. By then, the established phone manufacturers will have come up with something better, I would have thought. Perhaps Meizu should have been less ambitious with their first phone….

I’ve already spoken about why I moved from the old blog address, and mentioned that I split the topics of that one blog between several new, more focussed blogs - of which this is one.

One consequence of moving was that my traffic dropped significantly (only temporarily,I hope!) That made a recent spike in visitor numbers all the more noticeable. The new traffic was all to one post - the one about the Meizu MiniOne being featured in the Straits Times; my post got mentioned in the MeizuMe forum site, which drew a flood of traffic, several hundred visitors over a day or so.

I’m still watching the traffic for a while before i do any detailed analysis, but it’s immediately clear that the interest is concentrated in Europe and the US. There’s some, but not much, traffic from developing countries; almost no-one came from Africa.

Initial summary of my conclusions:

• this traffic came from a fan-site, not mainstream media;
• traffic to my post spiked immediately after the link went up; MeizuMe members are monitoring the site closely for updates;
• the site members are eagerly anticipating the release of the M8, and there is a great deal of speculation over what the phone’s final specifications will be;
• the traffic came largely from developed, mature markets. There are plenty of handphone models available there, and yet these indivduals are interested in a specific model from a Chinese manufacturer.

I find this very interesting indeed: what we are seeing seems to be a ‘cult’ forming, beneath the radar of most analysts. Of course, it’s nowhere near the size, and has nothing like the strength, of the iPhone movement. Furthermore, it draws much of its initial momentum from the iPhone, which has clearly inspired the design. However, to dismiss it as a cheap knock-off clone,as the Straits Times did, is pretty lazy; the M8 is a feature-rich phone that improves on the iPhone in various ways. What exactly is generating the excitement is something to be looked at further. Speaking personally, as someone who is also looking forward to the M8’s release, I find that while the iPhone is very cool, it just doesn’t suit my day-to-day needs; it also costs more than I want to pay, given that I don’t spend much on fashion items, and need features more than I need ‘cool’. This, for example, is why I bought an Asus EeePC rather than a MacBook Air!

Also…. and I speak here as a long-standing Mac fan, I’m turned off by the way Apple seem to be developing the iPhone as a closed system. I know that they’ve turned around, and announced that third-party apps will be allowed soon, but first impressions count, and Apple’s gone corporate; the ‘rebel’ factor has moved to China…

Another notable point about the M8 is that it is Meizu’s first phone; the company is better known as a manufacturer of MP3 players, and is now diversifying into a new product line, bringing a strong consumer base with it.

I think this is an important indicator of future trends. The scattershot design method of Chinese phone manufacturers, which I wrote about on a previous occasion, is generating a lot of niche models. These are already beginning to find a market outside China, and as they become better-known for variety and pricing, their market will grow. Since manufacturing costs are not high - which makes short-run production feasible - I’m thinking of this process as guerilla design for the long tail…

More on this later, perhaps. As for the M8, that Straits Times article wasn’t backed up by anything solid. I’m going to assume that it was filler, since pretty much all of the content has been available online for some time. Regarding the local content, where the author referred to local shops preparing to stock the M8, I was in Sim Lim Square a few days afterwards, scouting out prices for the EeePC, and I didn’t see any evidence of phone shops advertising the M8. That’s not to say that nobody is, but there’s no buzz to speak of. In fact, the MeizuMe forum is reliably suggesting that the M8 won’t hit the market until Q2. Speaking personally, I can’t wait that long, as my current phone is on its last legs… I’m still tempted by the CECT T100, as I am curious about its bioemetric security system….

The IHT has a good piece today on Nokia. The Finns are roaring ahead, dominating the handphone market, and in particular are being very successful at penetrating developing markets.

This is particularly important for them because this is where adults are buying their first ever phone, and mindshare is established. That’s a valuable asset; in a recent catchup with Niti, I found myself noting that “I speak Nokia” - which is to say that because I started off with a Nokia I now find their interfaces intuitive, and Moto and Sony-Ericsson (for example) are now slightly less so. Of course, consumers are pretty sophisticated, and will choose according to their specific needs, but that “mental lock-in” isn’t to be dismissed. That’s especially relevant in the developing markets where a new phone may be a significant investment, and someone who finds a brand reliable may well stick with it faithfully rather than experiment.

However… as the article suggests, Nokia can’t rest on their laurels. There are lots of hungry competitors out there. The IHT mentions Korea’s LG, and uses Shenzhen-based ZTE as an example of the many Chinese phone manufacturers who are innovating like crazy.

Nokia, and the other phone companies, have two ways forward - more innovative design, and mobile services. This is why Jan Chipchase’s work is so fascinating - to go into the rough, developing parts of the world, look at how people live, and sift out insights into how phones and services might fit in. A research lab on its own is no longer enough, mixing it up with the people is needed - perhaps phone R&D will develop into an anthropological/sociological discipline of its own, like something from a William Gibson novel…

Jan gave a fascinating talk at the TED conference, at which he shared some of what he’s learned. His slides from this presentation are available on his personal website.

Another example of Nokia’s approach to R&D was given at the recent LIFT08 conference in Turin, where Younghee Jung (is she a member of Jan’s team, or working elsewhere in Nokia? I think so, but I’m not sure…) gave a presentation on a design project Nokia ran with communities in the developing world.

Both videos are worth spending a bit of your time on.

What, I wonder, are the ZTEs and Meizus doing along these lines? And if they’re not, why not?

The Straits Times has a piece in its Home section today on the MiniOne. Apparently, it’s expected to hit the market here in Singapore from next month, and will cost between S$600 - S$700. The author, technology correspondent Alfred Siew, does mention that it will run Windows Mobile, but mostly discusses the similarity between the appearance of the M8 and the iPhone. He’s hardly the first, but goes on to focus on the “Chinese ripoff” angle, with mentions of cheap iPod knock-offs (the Zling Nax I bought in Carrefour would be one example - and it is cheap and shoddy, I agree!). Still, it would have been useful to mention that the M8 apparently will have a lot of differences with the iPhone, and will be superior in some regards (such as the better cameras). The piece is topped by a couple of uncredited images to compare the M8 and the iPhone. Pity, it could have been a lot more in-depth, and taken a look at current Chinese innovation in the mobile market, rather than just going for the cheap shot.

Since Gizmodo is reporting a likely launch date of March 3rd… perhaps I’ll hang on and get one after all once I hit Beijing.

And since I’m talking of Apple and Beijing, MacNN report that the Chinese capital’s first Apple Store is planned to be on Qianmen street - which is to say, the sanitised, faux-traditional shopping quadrant that is being constructed on the ruins of what was a truly old, vibrant community.

I loved the old Qianmen; I’ve written before on my martial arts blog about my experiences, and the great times I had, there. I guess I’ll just have to see what I think of the new one when I get there, but the metaphor of an Apple Store emerging from the ruins of a bustling and ancient part of Chinese history doesn’t need me to labour the point.

Slashphone brings the news that when the Meizu M8 is released in February next year, it will hit the market not just in China, but also in the US. Apparently it will be previewed at a trade show in the States in January.

Hm. So much for my hopes of making a fortune by selling them from China on eBay….

I’ll be in Beijing in February, so it’s likely I’ll be getting one. The question is, do I buy a CECT T100 in the meantime? I’ll have to make that decision in the next couple of days…

New shots of the Meizu M8, aka MiniOne:

A new colour scheme… It seems that the release date has been pushed back to Feb/March next year - around the time I’ll be in Beijing… Pity, had hoped to get one before then… I wonder if it’s any coincidence that the iPhone is due to be released in Asia around the same time….

Update 18 Nov 2007:

This post from Little Red Blog makes me wonder whether the delay is due to licensing issues. On the other hand, Olivia Chung’s article on the liberalization of the phone market - which I wrote about recently - would suggest that this problem should be going away. Anybody know?

Losing my phone recently has focused my attention on design issues in the industry; as I’ve mentioned, I’m hanging on and using my old Nokia 6108 while I wait for my chosen new model - the Meizu M8 - to arrive on the market. The 6108 was the first Nokia model to be designed in China, in Beijing to be exact. Meizu are based in south China, in Guangdong, and seem to be quietly building up a global following, based on the number of web sites dedicated to their products. A couple of weeks ago I also wrote about CECT, another Chinese phone company, and their model with biometric security features - and again, judging from the number of comments, it seems that without the company apparently trying very hard, they seem to be building up a global customer base attracted by the feature sets of the phones, which aren’t provided by the global brands. I know from my own time spent in Beijing, that mobile phone shops are everywhere, and there are many, many local brands.

Given this context, I found an article I just read in Asia Times Online extremely interesting. In China’s phone makers in speed dial mode, Olivia Chung mentions that the Chinese government has just liberalised the rules on phone handset manufacturing and distribution. This means that local manufacturers will be released from a bottleneck that’s been inhibiting their activity. The key market is the rural Chinese population, who are extremely price-sensitive, and have little or no brand loyalty. This means that to makes sales, manufacturers will have to design low-cost phones with very diverse feature sets.

For years, we’ve seen Japan held up as the main source of innovation in the phone sector, with technologies and phone-based activities far in advance of anything we get in ‘the West’. Japan, however, is a very local market: not so many of its innovations actually transfer to other locales. China, however, is different: it’s using the same technologies as ‘the rest of the world’. This means that very soon we’re going to see the fast-forward innovations of Chinese manufacturers, honed in the frantic fight for domestic market share, producing phones that people elsewhere in the world will find highly desireable.

These foreign buyers may not be all that numerous for any given manufacturer or model, just part of the Long Tail. However, it’s inevitable that some will become evangelists for their phones, and brand awareness will spread. It’s also pretty inevitable that there will come a breakthrough product, one that just happens to meet an unexpected demand, and that will really bring Chinese phones to global attention.

The global brands, especially Nokia - through the activities of Jan Chipchase and his colleagues - have been taking an anthropological approach to user needs for a long time, with the aim of designing phones to meet social and psychological niches. (Nokia recently opened the world’s largest Flagship Store in Shanghai, an indication of how seriously they take the Chinese market). Chinese manufacturers will be doing the same by designing a multitude of handsets, letting them loose in the market, and seeing which ones sell: design through survival of the fittest, rather than design by research. I wonder which will be more effective..?

Heh, I’m guessing there’s a niche to be filled by someone: distributing information on new Chinese phone models, and translating the user manuals…

Update 25 Nov 2007:

For some more background information, see this summary of a 2005 report on the Chinese mobile phone design market.

I was writing recently about losing my Nokia 6708, and was talking about it off-line with Niti. One of the annoying things about it was the lack of a password, meaning that the handset can be sold on and re-used by whoever’s got it now. The only security measure available was for the SIM card, not the phone itself; we were wondering why such an obvious and needed feature wasn’t available for what was quite an expensive smartphone.

Happily, my new iPod does have password-protection, so at least if this goes AWOL, no-one will be able to benefit from it…

Anyway, I read an article today on Virtual China, about a Chinese-designed phone that seems to be pretty well-protected, with fingerprint-ID required. This is the CECT T100 (heh, sci-fi fans will be smirking at that). By the way, beware the CECT website - every link seems to open in a new window, and they have horrible background music on every page. But if they can’t do web design, their phones seem to be done very well - to me, it’s a reasonably nice-looking phone, with an interesting set of features that will suit the Chinese businessman on the go! (Not necessarily what I would want in a phone myself, but it features streaming TV and Karaoke as well as the usual multimedia features). Most important, though, is the biometric access control. Pretty cool…

When China Tech News reviewed the T100, the comments list seems to indicate that it already has a substantial global following; the most common query is about the lack of a manual in English. This suggests to me that people are buying it from Chinese suppliers based on its design, but that the company isn’t actively marketing it outside China.

I know from my time living in Beijing that the phone shops are very well-stocked with locally-designed handphones, and it would appear that their quality is just getting better and better. China definitely seems to be innovating fast in this sector, and once they start making a serious effort to market internationally, they would seem set to transform the market - particularly as here in Asia there’s none of this ridiculous locking of handsets to one particular network, as I read about in the US and Europe…