卦Trigram 2.0
Asian Snowcrash

According to Stephanie Martin, the new worldwide lead for IBM Developer Relations, the number of young new IT developers is falling fast in the US, but rising fast in East Asia.

“In China what we’re seeing is interest in core technologies in the open standards area,” Martin said. “We’re seeing the most interest in learning more about Java, JavaScript and SOA as well as how all those work together. We’re also seeing interest there in Web 2.0 technology.”

Japan and Korea are also growth areas for developers; the latter apparently seeing 57% more people join IBM’s Developer Network in 2007 than in 2006. What’s interesting is that this represents collaboration between skilled and enthusiastic participants, which will hopefully means rising standards. Add this to the innovation and experimentation we’re seeing in other fields (eg the approaches to mobile phone design I wrote about recently), and it looks like we can expect to see lots more exciting developments coming out of the Confucian zone soon…

The delivery date for the Meizu M8 has constantly been slipping. Amongst the faithful waiting for the phone to reach market, doubt has been setting in - will the M8 ever actually enter production, or will it become a might-have-been?

For me, it’s already too late. I need to buy a new phone soon and, once I have, I won’t need the M8. Pity, I was looking forward to using a really innovative, China-designed phone.

Anyway, for those who can still afford to wait, Engadget have released these clips of Meizu’s semi-functioning prototype:

 Update:

According to Phone magazine, the people at the Meizu stall are saying that the M8’s launch is 6 months away. Hmmm. I think that’s a killer. By then, the established phone manufacturers will have come up with something better, I would have thought. Perhaps Meizu should have been less ambitious with their first phone….

Just as with TED, the LIFT08 conference has a large number of utterly fascinating videos of their speakers online. A few days ago, I was watching the keynote speech by Bruce Sterling, and at the end was not impressed. I came away with the impression of a rant about Nicolas Sarkozy and Carla Bruni, who really aren’t a big presence on my Asian radar. I even went so far as to comment in an email to Niti that I’d been disappointed. Still… I guess I should have wondered about that; I’ve been a really big fan of his books. I put it down to an off-day and thought no more about it.

As it happens, I’m a long-time RSS subscriber to Pasta & Vinegar, blogged by Nicolas Nova - who also happens to be LIFT organizer. This morning I opened up a post about Bruce’s speech, which made me go back and watch the video again… and OK, now I see what he was doing. I should have known better than to think that he would have gotten tied up in a discussion of celebrity gossip

In my defence, I can point out that a) I seem to have been far from the only person who didn’t catch the point, and b) which is far more relevant, I’m only a few days away from moving to Beijing, and I didn’t have my full attention on the video. In fact, rather more than half of my attention was at that point devoted to packing, shredding, putting aside for recycling, or otherwise attending to, my dwindling pile of possessions…

So, lesson learned: when Bruce Sterling speaks, give your full attention or you’ll miss something important!

I was impressed as well by Jasmina Tesanovic’s presentation. She was talking about Radio B92, the student radio station that evolved into the multimedia channel for dissent in Slobodan Milosovic’s Serbia. I was following what they were doing at the time, ie mid 90s, especially because they were very innovative in their use of the internet; furthermore, I’ve only just finished reading Matthew Collins’ Guerrilla Radio, which tells the story of B92 during that period - and in which Jasmina’s name appears more than a few times! (Bruce and Jasmina also happen to be married now, which is why I mention them both here!).

Lots going on in the world of mobile telephony over the last few days…

The headlines seem to have been captured by India, where Mumbai-based company Spice - who, astonishingly, have no entry in Wikipedia (at least, not when I checked a few moments ago; no doubt one will appear in short order - have introduced the so-called “People’s Phone”. They’re targeting the bottom end of the market with a back-to-basics phone that does nothing but make calls. No screen, no SMS, no games, tools, calculator, nothing… just calls. According to the London Times, it’ll cost £10 - which, according to Yahoo! Finance means 27.83 Singapore dollars / 19.67 US dollars / 780 Indian Rupees / 141 RMB at today’s rates.

Reuters add more detail and insight. Spice will market the new phone “from Iraq to Indonesia“; apparently they believe that the key issue to breaking into the developing market, the bottom of the pyramid, is the price of the handset (my emphasis). Well, I’m sure they have done their research and know better than me - but that sounds very surprising to me. Cheap second-hand phones are already widely available through much of this market, it seems to me, and I’m fairly certain that an SMS culture is also well-established. That would suggest to me that the real barrier would be the cost of airtime, messaging, and other services. Well, the proof of the pudding is in the eating, and it will be interesting to see how well this “People’s Phone” sells after its introduction next month. (It also seems to be missing a market; I know plenty of Brits of my parents’ generation who would be delighted to get their hands on a really cheap phone that does nothing but calls!).

A contrasting approach comes from Singapore-based Jurong Technologies. They’ve partnered with Infineon Technologies, TJAT Systems, and Brightstar Corporation to introduce a budget Smart Entry Phone, featuring various instant messaging services (Yahoo!, MSN, ICQ) plus email. According to the Business Times, it will cost “around $50“. Looking at everything else on the same page, I see that the Business Times explicitly says “US$” in other articles; I therefore conclude that they mean 50 Singapore dollars. So, that’s: £17.98 / 35.35 US Dollars / 1,401 Rupees / 253 RMB. The consortium also see Asian developing markets, and India in particular, as their main focus. Same questions, though - how will the airtime and services be priced?

That creates a very narrow price band between ultra-basic at USD19.67 at the very bottom, and email- & chat-enabled at USD 35.5… Where will other models fit in? What other combinations of features and price would compete?

At any rate, these examples show that the price of a new handset is falling significantly and rapidly, for both basic and more highly-featured models. I’ll take a look at what’s happening in China after I get there; I remain convinced that for all the headlines about India, there is much more genuine innovation going on in China, which will at some point hit other markets…

As for service costs, it’s very good news that China is about to dramatically cut the costs of roaming charges for calls made between provinces- by between 54% and 73% according to China Daily, which gives fairly detailed examples. That will make calling more affordable for migrant workers… What barriers are there “from Iraq to Indonesia”? And, of course, why does nobody seem to be talking about Africa?

Interesting articles:

• For the rural poor, cellphones come calling (Heather Timmons, IHT, on India’s rural market for phones);
• Mobile phone usage in China;
• Mobile usage trends in Indonesia (as seen from China; a little dated).

Update Feb 16:

China Digital Times has an intriguing piece about one Chinese blogger’s ‘participation’ in the meeting regarding roaming charges.

The IHT has a good piece today on Nokia. The Finns are roaring ahead, dominating the handphone market, and in particular are being very successful at penetrating developing markets.

This is particularly important for them because this is where adults are buying their first ever phone, and mindshare is established. That’s a valuable asset; in a recent catchup with Niti, I found myself noting that “I speak Nokia” - which is to say that because I started off with a Nokia I now find their interfaces intuitive, and Moto and Sony-Ericsson (for example) are now slightly less so. Of course, consumers are pretty sophisticated, and will choose according to their specific needs, but that “mental lock-in” isn’t to be dismissed. That’s especially relevant in the developing markets where a new phone may be a significant investment, and someone who finds a brand reliable may well stick with it faithfully rather than experiment.

However… as the article suggests, Nokia can’t rest on their laurels. There are lots of hungry competitors out there. The IHT mentions Korea’s LG, and uses Shenzhen-based ZTE as an example of the many Chinese phone manufacturers who are innovating like crazy.

Nokia, and the other phone companies, have two ways forward - more innovative design, and mobile services. This is why Jan Chipchase’s work is so fascinating - to go into the rough, developing parts of the world, look at how people live, and sift out insights into how phones and services might fit in. A research lab on its own is no longer enough, mixing it up with the people is needed - perhaps phone R&D will develop into an anthropological/sociological discipline of its own, like something from a William Gibson novel…

Jan gave a fascinating talk at the TED conference, at which he shared some of what he’s learned. His slides from this presentation are available on his personal website.

Another example of Nokia’s approach to R&D was given at the recent LIFT08 conference in Turin, where Younghee Jung (is she a member of Jan’s team, or working elsewhere in Nokia? I think so, but I’m not sure…) gave a presentation on a design project Nokia ran with communities in the developing world.

Both videos are worth spending a bit of your time on.

What, I wonder, are the ZTEs and Meizus doing along these lines? And if they’re not, why not?

The Straits Times has a piece in its Home section today on the MiniOne. Apparently, it’s expected to hit the market here in Singapore from next month, and will cost between S$600 - S$700. The author, technology correspondent Alfred Siew, does mention that it will run Windows Mobile, but mostly discusses the similarity between the appearance of the M8 and the iPhone. He’s hardly the first, but goes on to focus on the “Chinese ripoff” angle, with mentions of cheap iPod knock-offs (the Zling Nax I bought in Carrefour would be one example - and it is cheap and shoddy, I agree!). Still, it would have been useful to mention that the M8 apparently will have a lot of differences with the iPhone, and will be superior in some regards (such as the better cameras). The piece is topped by a couple of uncredited images to compare the M8 and the iPhone. Pity, it could have been a lot more in-depth, and taken a look at current Chinese innovation in the mobile market, rather than just going for the cheap shot.

Since Gizmodo is reporting a likely launch date of March 3rd… perhaps I’ll hang on and get one after all once I hit Beijing.

And since I’m talking of Apple and Beijing, MacNN report that the Chinese capital’s first Apple Store is planned to be on Qianmen street - which is to say, the sanitised, faux-traditional shopping quadrant that is being constructed on the ruins of what was a truly old, vibrant community.

I loved the old Qianmen; I’ve written before on my martial arts blog about my experiences, and the great times I had, there. I guess I’ll just have to see what I think of the new one when I get there, but the metaphor of an Apple Store emerging from the ruins of a bustling and ancient part of Chinese history doesn’t need me to labour the point.

When I was working in the mountains of Lesotho, many moons ago, keeping in touch with people was a major undertaking. For example, my parents were concerned about my welfare - me being 17 at the time, and South Africa not being the most stable country then… and of course, this was before the time of cheap flights, so southern Africa was mentally much further away than it is in these days of mass air travel.

In order to speak to my folks, I had to wait for our truck to leave on its weekly supply run. Assuming that the bridges weren’t out, we would get to the nearest town, Hlotse (usually called Leribe), and then cross the border into the South African town of Ficksburg. I would have to go to the main post office, wait for the one official with an international line in her office to be free, go to her office to make a collect call to my parents, and then wait for them to call back. I could then talk, while the post office lady listened in. Luckily, she was very nice!

Getting a landline - or even a fax or telex - to our base up in the mountains was a dream - I have no idea whether or not they ever got one!

On another personal note, I remember the joy I experienced when I first got access to the internet back in 1994. Coming from a small country town, where information and knowledge were hard to come by. The Net changed all that. Suddenly, I was able to find things out without making a trip to the library in the nearest city; I was able to talk to people on the other side of the world who shared my interests.

The arrival of mobile telephony in developing countries is freeing hundreds of millions of people from the need to make the kind of trips that I had to make, and presenting them with the same kind of liberation that I experienced. What difference will it make to them?

I’m going to be looking at this a lot, particularly with reference to Africa and China. Pointers to more information are welcome!

First of all is this very interesting piece at worldchanging: Africa Calling - SND MNY 2 YR MBL. It’s a very good primer on how mobile banking via handphones is making life much easier for the poor, via services such as MTN Banking. It points out the similarity of this venture to similar successes in South Asia, and Bangladesh’s Grameen Phone in particular. This is the sort of thing that Niti is very interested in… Are there similar services in China? If so, who? If not, why not? What are the design needs for this kind of service? Watch this space for answers to these questions!

Slashphone brings the news that when the Meizu M8 is released in February next year, it will hit the market not just in China, but also in the US. Apparently it will be previewed at a trade show in the States in January.

Hm. So much for my hopes of making a fortune by selling them from China on eBay….

I’ll be in Beijing in February, so it’s likely I’ll be getting one. The question is, do I buy a CECT T100 in the meantime? I’ll have to make that decision in the next couple of days…

I’ve just found Tim O’Reilly’s report from the Beijing Foo Camp, posted a week ago. It chimes with everything I feel about Beijing after my time there, and in particular, this:

There are (reportedly) very large differences between the tech cultures in Shanghai and Beijing. Shanghai is very entrepreneurial, with money as a common language. Beijing is more complex, richer by most opinions, but more difficult. We might have felt more at home in Shanghai, but because of the complex interactions between government, academic institutions (which are centered in Beijing), the artistic revival here, and business, many felt that the future is here in Beijing. Of course, they also said that the rivalry between the two cities is like the rivalry between LA and New York.

I totally agree - and it’s one of the reasons why I keep touting Beijing as one of the most interesting places in the world to be right now - and why I’m going back next year

The whole of Tim’s post is worth reading for his thoughts on Beijing, China, and the tech/arts scene.

New shots of the Meizu M8, aka MiniOne:

A new colour scheme… It seems that the release date has been pushed back to Feb/March next year - around the time I’ll be in Beijing… Pity, had hoped to get one before then… I wonder if it’s any coincidence that the iPhone is due to be released in Asia around the same time….

Update 18 Nov 2007:

This post from Little Red Blog makes me wonder whether the delay is due to licensing issues. On the other hand, Olivia Chung’s article on the liberalization of the phone market - which I wrote about recently - would suggest that this problem should be going away. Anybody know?