卦Trigram 2.0
Asian Snowcrash

So… the Spice phone, with no screen or non-voice call functions will cost the equivalent of RMB 141? With basic but full-featured phones available at RMB 199, or even RMB99, new - where’s the market, again?

RMB99: advert next to public newspaper board. These boards are still pretty common around Beijing, with the day’s paper there for passersby to read.

RMB 199, in the window of a phone shop at Wudaokou. With a constant influx of new students - Chinese, Western, and (in large numbers) Korean - the phone market is intensely competitive here. A cluster of shops make it a great place to look for that new phone, regardless of budget.

A Cylon Centurion:

A Motorola Smart Rider Phone:

Beijing and Singapore are both full of construction sites.

This set of signs is pretty typical of those I’ve seen in various parts of Beijing. I like the ‘wear your hard hat’ icon; it seems to seek to inspire, to persuade workers that they do really want to wear a helmet, as opposed to the Singaporean, “obey the rules” style… Not sure if I have a photo of Singapore’s signage; it may have to wait…

According to Stephanie Martin, the new worldwide lead for IBM Developer Relations, the number of young new IT developers is falling fast in the US, but rising fast in East Asia.

“In China what we’re seeing is interest in core technologies in the open standards area,” Martin said. “We’re seeing the most interest in learning more about Java, JavaScript and SOA as well as how all those work together. We’re also seeing interest there in Web 2.0 technology.”

Japan and Korea are also growth areas for developers; the latter apparently seeing 57% more people join IBM’s Developer Network in 2007 than in 2006. What’s interesting is that this represents collaboration between skilled and enthusiastic participants, which will hopefully means rising standards. Add this to the innovation and experimentation we’re seeing in other fields (eg the approaches to mobile phone design I wrote about recently), and it looks like we can expect to see lots more exciting developments coming out of the Confucian zone soon…

A little behind the pack, the IHT has run a feature today on the Spice phone (previously discussed by the Times and Reuters). Niti is worried about the phone, and is concerned that it is patronizing the poor.

I don’t think that’s the case. Niti’s points about the value of the screen, and of data services are all valid. However… let’s remember that the purpose of a company, a business, is not to offer goods or services that ought to exist, but to offer goods or services that will sell… That’s over-simplistic, of course, but it will serve for now.

So, will the Spice phone sell? I think so… but to whom? The people Niti has in mind are, I think, economically-active adults at the bottom of the pyramid. Even if it’s being billed as “the People’s phone”, I don’t think it’s intended for that niche. If it is, then maybe it’s a case of Spice spectacularly misunderstanding the market, rather than being patronising. This segment does need the data services and are more likely to buy a second-hand but more versatile phone for the same price - or so I would have thought, but let’s not underestimate people’s liking for “new and shiny” versus “second-hand and grimy”.

So who is a more likely market? The IHT article backs up and extends my musings when I wrote about this before - a rather more affluent segment, who want a call-only phone for:

• the older generation, eg my parents, who simply want a phone they can use just to keep in touch - usually with friends or family whose numbers they have memorised anyway, from long usage with a landline (or which, more likely, are stored in a battered old paper address book that they certainly are not going to painstakingly copy into a phone);
• parents, who want to give a phone to their school-age child for safety, or for general contact needs, but don’t want the child to get immersed in games, constant SMS exchanges with friends, etc…
• … and who else?

Of course, these markets extend far beyond India. And perhaps I’m wrong - perhaps even at the bottom of the pyramid there is a demand? After all, who exactly is making the enquiries from Africa, Indonesia, etc?

So, some options:

• There is no market at the BoP; Spice are patronising the poor, with the attitude “These people don’t need anything more”;
• There is a market at a slightly higher income bracket, but a niche one (caveat: People’s Phone does not necessarily mean “for the poor”; the original Volkswagen - ie People’s car - was, after all, designed for the aspirational working class/lower middle class. BTW, I invoke Godwin’s Law here: no mention of That Name, please.);
• There is a market at the BoP, and I’ve misjudged the needs of this segment.

As I said before, the proof of the pudding is in the eating. The phone hasn’t actually hit the market yet; let’s see how it sells…

I made some enquiries about the Hedy WP812, that waterproof phone I mentioned recently. Apparently it only costs RMB1000, and it’s available in a store in Zhongguancun, literally just down the road.

Hmmm. I’ll certainly go and look at it. The waterproof feature is of no use to me whatsoever in Beijing, where it almost never rains… could be useful in Singapore’s monsoon seasons, though…. Anyway, it’s billed by Hedy as a part of their business phone range, and the features look pretty good to me; the only drawback is the camera, which is only 1.2 megapixels.

The delivery date for the Meizu M8 has constantly been slipping. Amongst the faithful waiting for the phone to reach market, doubt has been setting in - will the M8 ever actually enter production, or will it become a might-have-been?

For me, it’s already too late. I need to buy a new phone soon and, once I have, I won’t need the M8. Pity, I was looking forward to using a really innovative, China-designed phone.

Anyway, for those who can still afford to wait, Engadget have released these clips of Meizu’s semi-functioning prototype:

 Update:

According to Phone magazine, the people at the Meizu stall are saying that the M8’s launch is 6 months away. Hmmm. I think that’s a killer. By then, the established phone manufacturers will have come up with something better, I would have thought. Perhaps Meizu should have been less ambitious with their first phone….

The days have mostly been lovely and sunny, with clear blue skies.

Internet connection:

• David at Silicon Hutong suggests that I am not alone in experiencing a really draggy net connection lately.
• (A different?) David at tech86 reminds us that WiMax Beijing is coming soon…
• Kaiser Kuo at Ogilvy Digital Watch mentions that China’s trans-Pacific internet pipe is being upgraded.
• Another possible explanation for why websites keep timing out on me…

Most popular phones suggested to me in shops in the student area of Wudaokou (I’m looking for a camera phone):

• Nokia N6300 @ RMB 1980
• Samsung Anycall G608 @ RMB 5000
• SamsungAnycall D908i @ RMB 2550
• Nokia N95 @ RMB 5880
• Nokia N73 @ RMB 2680

On Chinese phone companies’ design approach:

• CECT offer a phone that doubles as a heart monitor….
• … and HEDY present us with a waterproof, washable phone (possibly inspired by unfortunate events at public toilets in China, which are often slits above a pit?)

From the link to the CECT ‘heart’ phone above, I note with interest this quote from CECT parent company Qiao Xing Mobile’s Chairman, Wu Zhi Yang:

“We dedicate a large amount of resources to our efforts to develop highly differentiated handsets. The C7000A is a result of these efforts. It represents a breakthrough in the use of mobile handset technology. No longer are handsets only tools for entertainment and communication. We have been able to incorporate a piece of advanced medical technology that could possibly save lives. It is this kind of differentiating handset feature that we continually strive to offer to our customers in China.”

Note that they’re only making a few hundred of this model. VERY exclusive… but without doubt something that could easily find a worldwide market. And I suspect that a washable phone might find a ready market in developing countries… Just another couple of example of phone design innovation in China… I’m going to try to track down more about that washable phone.

Just to note this very interesting article in today’s IHT: Making next popular cellphone can be study in psychology. How do we design a phone to make it not just desirable, but also so that it adds maximum value to the user’s lifestyle? Through observation…  I like the point about noting that Chinese users were observed using the light from their phone to help unlock doors in unlit areas (but is this in any way unique to China? Doesn’t everyone do this?). It reminds me of something I read somewhere, now forgotten, saying that where rock fans once held their lighters in the air at concerts, they now hold up their mobile phones. Not something I would know from personal experience, but it makes me wonder what a phone designed for rock fans might be like!